Gold Prices During Every U.S. Recession
Historical Data, Charts, and Analysis (1970–2025)
Gold gained value in six of eight recessions since 1970, averaging a 20.2% return while the S&P 500 lost an average of 8.4%.
8
Recessions Analyzed
20.2%
Average Gold Return
7 of 8
Times Gold Beat Stocks
Quick Reference: Gold During Every Recession
Click column headers to sort. Recession dates per the National Bureau of Economic Research.
| Recession | Duration | Gold Start | Gold End | Gold % | S&P 500 % | Gold Won? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969–1970 Recession | 11 months | $36.56 | $36.02 | -1.5% | -33.7% | |
| 1973–1975 Recession | 16 months | $95.22 | $178.04 | +86.9% | -42.6% | |
| 1981–1982 Recession | 16 months | $460.00 | $447.45 | -2.7% | -16.5% | |
| 1990–1991 Recession | 8 months | $369.17 | $363.55 | -1.5% | -12.4% | |
| 2001 Recession | 8 months | $263.03 | $276.16 | +5% | -26.6% | |
| 2007–2009 Great Recession | 18 months | $803.20 | $934.50 | +16.3% | -50.9% | |
| 2020 COVID-19 Recession | 2 months | $1,586.60 | $1,694.20 | +6.8% | -19.6% | |
| Jan–Jul 1980 Recession | 6 months | $677.97 | $643.46 | -5.1% | +6.2% |
Gold prices sourced from FRED and LBMA. S&P 500 data from Macrotrends.
Gold vs. S&P 500: Performance During Each Recession
Side-by-side comparison showing how gold and equities performed during each official recession period.
- Gold
- S&P 500
Recession-by-Recession Breakdown
Detailed analysis of gold's price action, causes, and aftermath for each downturn.
Cause
Excessive government spending on the Vietnam War drove inflation higher. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to cool prices, tipping the economy into contraction.
Gold Price Action
Gold dipped 1.5%, falling from $36.56 to $36.02 per ounce. Under the Bretton Woods system, gold was still pegged near $35, which severely limited its upside.
What Happened Next
President Nixon ended the gold standard in August 1971. Gold prices tripled within two years, climbing from $36 to $120 per ounce by 1973.
Once the $35 peg broke in 1971, gold tripled in two years.
Start Price
$36.56
End Price
$36.02
Gold Change
-1.5%
S&P 500
-33.7%
What the Data Tells Us
Three recurring patterns emerge from 55 years of recession data.
Severity Drives Returns
Worse recessions produce bigger gold gains. The Great Recession and 1973 stagflation produced the largest returns. The severity of economic damage directly correlates with how much money flows into gold.
The Liquidity Dip Pattern
Gold often sells off during initial panic (2008: −28%, 2020: brief dip below $1,500) as institutions raise cash, then rallies hard once central banks respond with stimulus.
Interest Rates Are the Headwind
Gold's only losses came during periods of extremely high interest rates (1980, 1981–1982). When rates are low or falling, gold thrives. Gold generates no income, so high yields elsewhere draw capital away.
Where Gold Stands in 2026
Current Gold Price
$5,040/oz
As of February 2026
Gold entered 2026 above $5,000 after gaining more than 60% in 2025, its best year since 1979. Trade tensions, persistent inflation, and record central bank buying (863 tonnes in 2025) all fueled the rally. ETF inflows reached record levels as both institutional and retail investors moved into the metal.
J.P. Morgan forecasts gold reaching $5,000 by Q4 2026 with $6,000 possible longer term. The World Gold Council's 2026 outlook expects risk and uncertainty to keep driving demand.
Gold's Price Milestones
$35
1970
Bretton Woods
$850
1980
All-time high
$1,917
2011
Post-crisis peak
$2,072
2020
COVID high
$5,040
2026
Current
Methodology & Sources
This analysis uses recession dates established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of U.S. business cycle dates. Gold prices are monthly closing prices. S&P 500 returns are total returns including dividends. All percentage changes are calculated from the gold price at the start of the NBER-dated recession to the gold price at the end.
This page is updated regularly. Last updated: February 2026.
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